January 20, 2005
Kampala, Uganda.

OPINION

WHAT SHOULD AFRICA EXPECT FROM GW BUSH'S SECOND ADMINISTRATION?

As the world waited with baited breath what George Bush's new agenda would be in the next four years, the American media was awash with speculations regarding what GW Bush would or would not do for fellow Americans and the rest of humanity.

The other day an American journalist with Voice of America called me to solicit my thoughts on what Africa should expect from G W Bush during his second term in office as the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

What immediately came to my mind was the fact that the question itself was not right. It was too general to elicit meaningful response. I thought so because I immediately surfed the African continent and soon realized how diverse, balkanized and generally different Africa was from coast to coast, and to expect a general expectation from an American president was neither possible nor feasible.

Of the 53 states dotting the African continent, each one of them has a unique and special relationship with United States of America, the more reason the US has posted its ambassadors in all the key states it considers strategic for its economic and political interests.

Between 2000 and 2004 when two Americans presidents have visited the continent in the recent past, the choice of which state to visit in Africa has been as controversial as it has been telling. A mere inclusion into the itinerary, even if it has been for a few hours, has boosted the clout of that country, that such and such a country is more favored by the most powerful nation on earth than its neighbours. And true to expectations, such countries have ended up receiving more dollars for all manner of social programs than their neighbours.

In the recent past, such beneficiaries have been Uganda and the DRC in the East and Central Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal in the West Coast and South Africa and Mozambique in the South.

For the Arab North, Egypt has been an almost permanent beneficiary in the tune of three billion dollars annually since it signed a peace accord with Israel over two decades ago.

Extracts from numerous debates on American networks and leading publications have been very good pointers to the direction the new Administration policies would go.

Critics of the Bush administration are quick to point out that nothing substantial will change. The democrats opine that there is a very high likelihood that George Bush's past mistakes, especially with regard to the war in Iraq may go unacknowledged. That there is a strong probability that G W Bush will continue with his arrogance and scorn of world opinion on matters of international interest such as the war in Iraq and the Kyoto protocol.

War on terrorism will continue unabated with a possible invasion of Iran very early in the new administration unless it allows the Americans unlimited access to its nuclear facilities. This theory was given more credence when former Republican Secretary of State, James Baker conceded to Larry King on CNN that if America had to stop nuclear proliferations, then it had every right to start spying on Iranian nuclear installations now.

According to Hersh Seymour of the New Yorker newspaper, war on terror and the desire to control nuclear proliferations will necessitate American troops opening new combat frontiers not only in Iran but also in Syria and North Korea, the states America sees as rogue states and supporters of international terrorism

There is a chance the new administration will be heavily involved in the Middle East crisis now that Bush has hailed the democratic election of the new Palestinian leader.

Chances are that Bush will form a strong alliance with Ariel Sharon of Israel because the White House sees Sharon as a strong ally in the fight against terrorism.

Americans expect President George W Bush's speech to be that of a strong political agenda, not just rhetoric. As the President prepared his speech, he must have had to find the balance between domestic agenda and international obligations.

On the domestic front, Americans expected him to deal with the explosive National Social security issue, homeland security and the sagging economy that has resulted in loss of millions of jobs.

Listening to the incoming Secretary of State, Condoleza Rice during her confirmation Senate hearings, one got the feeling that there was no defined agenda, neither was there any meaningful economic policy focus on Africa. Africa, more specifically Kenya and Somalia only came in as she discussed terrorist bombings in the region and how the US was going to empower those regions in the fight against terrorism.

What even compounds America's focus on Africa is the tragic undersea earth quake that rocked several countries in the South East Asia, the Indian sub continent and parts of the East Coast of Africa killing nearly 250,000 people.

As it is, the Tsunami tragedy has got America and the rest of the developed world focusing on rehabilitating the most affected countries like Indonesia, Sirilanka and neighboring island states.

Fears are that, under the circumstances, Africa's perennial problems like debt relief, famine disasters and general economic assistance to the continent may not be priority issues for the new administration.

But what are the real issues affecting Africa that America should deal with? There many problems worsening Africa's economies, some of which have their origins in American politics back in the USA.

Whenever American embassies and installations in Nairobi, Casablanca, Cairo or Dar es salaam are bombed by international terrorists, angered by America's support for Israel or Iraqi invasion, the sequence of events is almost predictable. The State Department would issue travel advisory notes telling Americans and other European tourisms that destinations like Nairobi were dangerous spots resulting in the death of the tourism industry, loss of revenue and disastrous economic consequences for such nations.

America's wars in the Middle East such as the ongoing Iraqi invasion have direct impact on African states that rely on Arab oil to sustain their economies. Whenever such a war is on, crude oil production levels slump while prices shoot up beyond the means of struggling African states.

Right now Africa's problems are legion other than the usual non performing economies. The debt burden, the scourge of the Aids epidemic, ravages of malaria and other tropical diseases, annual floods and draughts that kill millions of people every year and the general inability to better manage disasters and the environment are some of the issues Africa would like to see America coming to their aid on.

Whether the new Bush administration will spare time and focus its attention meaningfully on African issues remains to be seen.

Jerry Okungu
Director
ACEMEPA - The African Center for Media and Political Analysis
Nairobi, Kenya
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